Cliodynamics

Sun, Oct 18 2015 08:06pm EDT 1
F. S. Miller
F. S. Miller
9 Posts
Cliodynamics is a transdisciplinary area of research integrating historical macrosociology, cultural and social evolution, economic history/cliometrics, mathematical modeling of long-term social processes, and the construction and analysis of historical databases. - http://escholarship.org/uc/irows_cliodynamics
Thu, Oct 29 2015 10:48am EDT 2
F. S. Miller
F. S. Miller
9 Posts

It seems a bit presumptuous that some are attempting to predict developments and trends in society using deterministic models. Society may go through successive iterations of change, but these lead to increasingly more complex developments - some of which would be inconceivable (let alone predictable) - given the level of knowledge society may have at the time the predictions are made. And, given that we could never know for certain what variables will arise, let alone what set of probabilities to assign them, it would seem rather futile to apply stochastic models to these systems.

Cliodynamics has its skeptics - http://www.nature.com/news/human-cycles-history-as-science-1.11078

The field seems more useful for descriptive analytics rather than predictive analytics, and perhaps that is the realm in which the field will remain.

More active approaches to the evolution of society may hold greater benefits - http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1468-5973.1102002/abstract;jsessionid=88EA8C15DDD4654DA71DE8B059D04B49.f03t02

Please login or sign up to post on this network.
Click here to sign up.